Highlights

• • Home price (1.36) implies ~73.5% chance; we estimate ~80%
• • Positive EV of ~0.088 per 1 unit at current odds

Pros

• + Current market price is above our break-even threshold
• + No injury concerns reported in the provided research

Cons

• - Scarcity of form and H2H detail in the research increases model uncertainty
• - Edge is modest — outcome variance in a single match remains significant

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.36 -> implied win prob ~73.5%) to our assessment of the true probability. With the match on outdoor clay and no injury or availability concerns reported in the research, we view the favored pairing as clearly stronger on paper for this matchup and assign a higher true win probability (80%). That makes the current price attractive: required break-even probability at 1.36 is ~73.5%, so our 80% estimate produces positive expected value (EV = 0.088 per 1 unit staked). We also note limited direct H2H and form detail in the provided research, so we are relying on the combination of surface context and the market gap between implied and our assessed probability.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~73.5% (1/1.36)
• • Clay (outdoor) surface — included in assessment
• • No injuries or withdrawals reported in provided research
• • Limited H2H and form detail in research increases uncertainty