Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) ~88.5%; our conservative estimate 86%
• • Fair decimal odds based on our estimate: ~1.163; current market 1.13

Pros

• + Home side is clearly favored by the market, suggesting higher baseline win probability
• + If additional positive info appears (injury to opponents, favorable form), value may emerge

Cons

• - Current price (1.13) offers negative EV against our conservative estimate
• - Lack of match-specific data increases model uncertainty; doubles outcomes can be volatile

Details

We examined the quoted prices (Home 1.13, Away 5.6) and, in the absence of any external form/injury/H2H data, made conservative assumptions. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~88.5% (1/1.13) but the price is very short and offers minimal room for error. Given uncertainty around surface, recent form, and doubles-specific volatility — and to avoid overfitting without data — we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 86.0%, below the market-implied probability. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.163, so the available home price of 1.13 produces a small negative expected value. Because expected value is negative at the current publicly-quoted price, we do not recommend wagering on either side.

Key factors

• • Very short home price leaves almost no margin for estimation error
• • No external data available (form, injuries, H2H) — we apply conservative uncertainty
• • Doubles matches have higher variance and can produce upsets despite favorites