Highlights

• • Away priced very short at 1.14 (implied ~87.7%)
• • Home implied probability 19.23% versus our conservative estimate of 19.0% — current price falls short of needed 5.263

Pros

• + If the market drifts to 5.30+ for the home side, a small positive EV would appear under our conservative model
• + Conservative approach avoids chasing a heavy favourite where surprise upsets can occur

Cons

• - Large favorite implies limited value on the short side unless we had strong negative info
• - High uncertainty due to lack of form/injury/H2H data increases variance of our estimate

Details

We have no external data for form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we take a conservative stance. The market prices the away side at 1.14 (implied ~87.7%) and the home side at 5.20 (implied ~19.23%) — a market with a large favorite and visible vig. Given the information vacuum, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 19.0%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is 5.263; the available price of 5.20 is slightly short of what we'd require to classify this as +EV. Calculating EV with our conservative estimate: EV = 0.19 * 5.20 - 1 = -0.012 (slightly negative). Therefore there is no value at the current prices and we do not recommend a bet. To consider the underdog, we would need a quote of at least 5.263; any lower price removes value under conservative assumptions.

Key factors

• • No available information on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we use a conservative probability
• • Market shows a very short-priced favourite (1.14) and a long-priced underdog (5.20) with vig
• • Under our conservative true probability the underdog is slightly underpriced relative to break-even and does not offer +EV at available quotes