J. Perello saavedra/Shiyu Ye vs P. Cembranos/N. Gadient
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — the 1.60 price overstates the home pair's chance given weak form and limited doubles data; we estimate ~52% true probability which yields a negative EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market price implies 62.5% win chance vs our 52% estimate
- • Negative expected return at current odds (EV ≈ -0.168)
Pros
- + Home is favored by the market (short price) which sometimes reflects table factors
- + Match on clay could suit baseline-oriented players if more data were available
Cons
- - Limited doubles-specific results and unknown partner dynamics
- - Shiyu Ye's recent individual form is poor, lowering confidence in the favorite
Details
We see the market pricing the home pair at 1.60 (implied probability 62.5%). Based on the available research, Shiyu Ye has a losing recent record (10-21 overall, poor recent form on hard courts) and there is no reliable data on the doubles chemistry or recent results for either pairing. Given the sparse doubles-specific evidence and Ye's underwhelming recent form, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home team at 52%. At the current price (1.60) that implies a negative edge (EV = 0.52*1.60 - 1 = -0.168), so there is no value to back the home side. With limited data on the opponents and the doubles pairing dynamics, we cannot justify taking the favorite at its current price and therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.60) is 62.5%, higher than our estimated true probability
- • Shiyu Ye shows weak recent form and losing record; limited positive indicators
- • Insufficient doubles-specific data for both pairings and unknown team chemistry on clay