Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 58.8% (market); our estimate: 56.0%
• • Negative EV at current home price: -0.048 (about -4.8% on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite, indicating some market confidence
• + Odds are widely available and stable (clear prices to compare)

Cons

• - No external data to reduce uncertainty — higher model risk
• - Market overround and current pricing remove value for both sides

Details

We have no external form, injury, surface or head-to-head data, so we adopt a conservative view. The market prices the home pair at 1.70 (implied ~58.8%); after accounting for a noticeable market overround (~7.6%) we estimate the home side's true win probability at 56.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.786, which is higher than the available 1.70, so the favorite is overpriced relative to our conservative model. Calculated EV at the current home price (1.70) is negative (p*odds - 1 = 0.56*1.70 - 1 = -0.048). The away side at 2.05 likewise offers no value against a conservative ~44% estimate. Given the lack of match-specific information and the market vig, neither side shows positive expected value, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific form, injury, surface or H2H data available — we apply a conservative baseline assessment
• • Market-implied probability for home is ~58.8% vs our conservative estimate of 56.0%
• • Market overround (~7.6%) reduces available value; fair decimal needed (~1.786) exceeds current 1.70