Highlights

• • Home implied probability 71.4% vs our estimate 70% — marginally overpriced by the book
• • M. Lewis's documented recent losses weigh against the away side but do not create value at 2.75

Pros

• + Away player M. Lewis has discernible form issues, lowering the away side's true chance
• + Market is tight — odds reflect a clear favourite rather than an inefficient price

Cons

• - Lack of reliable data on the home pairing and surface reduces confidence in any edge
• - The difference between our estimate and market is too small to overcome vig

Details

We estimate the home pair (J. Belgraver/K. Cross) has roughly a 70% chance to win based on the limited research available: the away side includes M. Lewis, whose documented recent form is weak (10-21 career mark and several recent losses). The market prices the home side at decimal 1.40 (implied 71.43%). Our estimated true probability (0.70) is slightly lower than the market-implied probability, producing a small negative expected return at the current price. Given sparse information on the home team's form, surface and partnership dynamics, the margin is too thin to justify a value bet. Calculation: implied home probability = 1/1.40 = 0.714; our estimated probability = 0.70; EV at current home odds = 0.70 * 1.40 - 1 = -0.02 (negative). For the away side, M. Lewis's poor results suggest a substantially lower true probability (~30%), which is below the away market implied probability of 1/2.75 = 0.364, so that side also offers no value.

Key factors

• • M. Lewis shows weak recent form (career and recent results indicate losing trend)
• • Market-implied probability for the home side (71.4%) slightly exceeds our estimate (70%)
• • Insufficient public information on home partnership, surface and H2H increases uncertainty