J. Boulais/J K. Trotter vs S. Duncan/G. Johns

Highlights

• • Implied probabilities: Home 1.91 -> ~52.4%, Away 1.81 -> ~55.3%
• • Our conservative true probability 50% requires odds >= 2.00 to show value

Pros

• + Conservative, information-light approach avoids overreach
• + We used the best available market price (1.91) to check for value

Cons

• - High uncertainty from lack of form/injury/H2H data
• - Short market odds leave little room for margin or model error

Details

We adopt a conservative 50% true-win probability for this doubles match due to absence of form, surface, injury, or H2H data. The current quoted decimals imply probabilities of ~52.4% (home at 1.91) and ~55.3% (away at 1.81), both higher than our 50% estimate. At the better available price (home 1.91) the expected return is negative (0.50 * 1.91 - 1 = -0.045), so there is no value to exploit. Given the tight, short odds from the market and the substantial information uncertainty, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No reliable external data on form, surface preference, injuries, or recent results
• • Market odds are short and imply a favorite; best available price (1.91) still below our breakeven (2.00)
• • Bookmaker margin and two short prices in the market increase required edge for profitable betting