J. Delaney/J. Delaney vs A. Arcon/Z. Stevens

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 74.6% vs our estimate 70% → -6.2% EV at 1.34
• • Away implied 32.8% vs our estimate 30% → -8.5% EV at 3.05

Pros

• + Home is clearly favored by the market, suggesting a genuine quality gap
• + Odds are stable (not a live market), so no immediate sharp moves expected

Cons

• - Insufficient data on surface, current form, and pair chemistry increases model uncertainty
• - Neither side presents positive expected value at the quoted prices

Details

We estimate the home pair (J. Delaney/J. Delaney) has roughly a 70% chance to win based on favorite status in a low-information doubles match. The market decimal of 1.34 implies a 74.6% probability (1/1.34), which is more bullish than our conservative estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. Calculated EV at current home odds: EV = 0.70 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.062 (−6.2% ROI). The away price (3.05, implied 32.8%) likewise exceeds our conservative away probability (~30%), giving EV = 0.30 * 3.05 - 1 = -0.085 (−8.5% ROI). Given the lack of surface/H2H/form data and no evidence to move our win-probability estimates above the market-implied probabilities, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No match form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — high uncertainty
• • Book market implies 74.6% for home (1.34) which exceeds our conservative 70% estimate
• • Away price (3.05) implies 32.8% but our estimate for the away win is ~30%, also negative EV