J. Delaney/J. Delaney vs Chen Dong/F. Peliwo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the home favorite (1.33) based on Chen Dong's weak form and a modest gap between our estimated win probability and the market price; the edge is limited but positive.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability for home: 78%
- • Current odds (1.33) produce a small positive EV (~0.037)
Pros
- + Market price already favors the presumably stronger/consistent side
- + Opponent (Chen Dong) shows poor recent results, supporting a higher home probability
Cons
- - Very limited data on J. Delaney in the provided research increases uncertainty
- - Edge is small — vulnerable to variance and missing information (surface, H2H, fitness)
Details
We view the market-priced favorite (J. Delaney/J. Delaney at 1.33) as offering slight positive value versus the available information. The moneyline implies a win probability of ~75.2%, while Chen Dong's publicly available form is weak (7-11 overall, very limited wins in recent matches on hard courts), which supports the market favouring Delaney. Given the imbalance in recent performance data and no evidence of injury or conditions to materially reduce Delaney's chance, we estimate Delaney's true win probability higher than the market at ~78%. At that probability the current decimal price (1.33) yields a small positive expected value. We acknowledge the sample size and missing data on Delaney as risks, so the edge is modest.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.33 => ~75.2%) vs our estimated 78% true probability
- • Chen Dong's limited and weak recent form (7-11 career record, poor recent results on hard)
- • No reported injuries or offsets in the provided research; small-sample uncertainty on Delaney