J. Delaney/J. Delaney vs E. Cook/T. Sach

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (61.7%) is below our estimated 66%
• • Cook's recent results and overall record point to an underdog pairing

Pros

• + Current odds (1.62) exceed our fair odds (~1.515), producing positive EV
• + Clear negative signals on opponent form from recent match history

Cons

• - Limited available data on the home pairing increases uncertainty
• - EV is modest (~6.9%), so small errors in our probability estimate could remove value

Details

We believe the market price (home 1.62) understates the home side's chance. The only player-specific research available (E. Cook) shows a weak 10-21 record and poor recent form with consecutive losses on hard courts, suggesting the away pairing is vulnerable. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.62 is ~61.7%; based on Cook's form and lack of positive signals for the away team, we estimate a true win probability of 66% for the home side. At that probability the fair odds are ~1.515, so the current price of 1.62 offers positive expected value. Given limited information on J. Delaney and no injury reports, we remain cautious but see value here.

Key factors

• • E. Cook's poor overall record (10-21) and recent losing form
• • Recent matches for Cook were on hard courts and were losses, indicating form issues
• • Market price (1.62) implies ~61.7% while our estimate is ~66%, creating value