J. Hsu/D. Sakellaridis vs F. Bass/J. Mackinlay
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive EV on the home pair at 3.25 based on a conservative 33% win probability estimate, but uncertainty is high due to missing matchup and condition details.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability: 33.0%
- • Positive EV ≈ 7.25% at current odds (3.25)
Pros
- + Market price (3.25) is above our conservative fair threshold (3.03)
- + Doubles matches can produce variance that favors underdogs in pricing
Cons
- - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — high uncertainty
- - Edge is modest; variance in doubles could quickly negate short-term profits
Details
With no external data available we begin from the market-implied prices (Home 3.25, Away 1.30). Removing bookmaker vig gives a baseline normalized chance for the home side near 28.6%. Given typical doubles volatility, unknowns around surface/H2H/injuries, and the possibility of slight favorite overpricing in small events, we conservatively raise the home side's probability to 33.0%. At that estimated true probability the home side offers positive expected value versus the quoted 3.25 price: EV = 0.33 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.0725 (≈7.25% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price to break even at our estimate is 3.030, and the current market price (3.25) exceeds that threshold, producing value. We emphasize this is a small edge derived under high uncertainty due to lack of matchup-specific information.
Key factors
- • Market-implied baseline (vig removed) places home near 28.6%
- • Conservative upward adjustment to 33% due to doubles volatility and limited public information
- • Current home quote (3.25) exceeds break-even threshold (3.03) under our estimate