Highlights

• • Market price for home (2.15) is marginally above our conservative fair odds (2.128)
• • Estimated edge is small (≈1.05% ROI) and comes with high uncertainty

Pros

• + Current market odds (2.15) are slightly above our conservative fair odds (2.128)
• + Edge exists without relying on additional unverifiable information

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — high information risk
• - Edge is very small and could be erased by minimal new information or market movement

Details

No external match data was available, so we adopt a conservative, market-aware approach. The market prices the away pair at 1.64 (implied ~60.98%) and the home pair at 2.15 (implied ~46.51%). Given the absence of injury, surface, form, or H2H information, we assume a small market favorite bias and conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 47.0%. That probability implies fair decimal odds of 2.128; the current market price of 2.15 is slightly higher than that break-even level, producing a small positive edge. Because the edge is marginal and information is limited, we flag a high risk level despite a tiny positive expected value.

Key factors

• • No external/confirming data available — we use conservative priors
• • Market-implied probabilities: away favored at 1.64, home priced 2.15
• • Small assumed market favorite bias creates a slight edge on the home underdog