Highlights

• • EDG implied market probability: 33.6%; our estimate: 40%
• • Required decimal odds to break even on our estimate: 2.50; market offers 2.98

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current market price (≈+19.2% ROI)
• + Conservative probability assumptions reduce likelihood of overestimating edge

Cons

• - No recent match, injury, or form data available—higher uncertainty in the estimate
• - Esports outcomes are inherently volatile; single-match variance can negate expected edge

Details

We conservatively estimate EDward Gaming's true win probability at 40% based on parity assumptions, roster/strategy stability in LPL matches, and uncertainty from lacking recent information. The market price (EDG 2.98) implies a 33.6% win probability; this implies the market is undervaluing EDG by ~6.4 percentage points. At our estimate the bet has positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.98 - 1 = +0.192 (19.2% ROI). JD Gaming's market price (1.391) implies ~71.9% and would require a much higher true win probability than we assign, so we avoid the favorite. Given limited data and higher variance in esports outcomes, we use conservative probability estimates and still find value on EDG at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for EDG (33.6%) is below our conservative true probability estimate (40%)
• • Limited public data increases uncertainty—estimates are conservative to avoid overstatement of edge
• • Esports match outcomes are higher variance; favorable decimal odds provide cushion for underdog value