Highlights

• • Away implied probability 78.4% vs our estimate 75% → negative edge
• • Home would need odds ≥4.00 to match a 25% true probability, but current home odds 3.33 remain insufficient for value

Pros

• + We are conservative given limited data and recent poor form from the home player
• + Market prices are clear and accessible, allowing straightforward EV calculation

Cons

• - Research data is sparse (only one player's profile available), increasing model uncertainty
• - If opponent information (Tai Leonard Sach) suggests injury or other weakness not provided here, our estimate could be off

Details

We estimate the pre-match probability that the away player (Tai Leonard Sach) wins at about 75% based on the available profile for Jack Bruce Smith (2-3 career record, poor recent results on hard courts and limited match sample). The market currently prices the away player at 1.275 (implied win prob ~78.4%), which is shorter than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. The home price of 3.33 implies ~30.0% and would only be attractive if we believed Jack's true win probability were >=30% — given his limited form and match experience we place his win chance well below that threshold. Comparing our estimated true probability (75%) to the market price for the favorite (1.275) yields EV = 0.75*1.275 - 1 = -0.04375, so no value exists at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • Jack Bruce Smith's limited sample (5 matches) and 2-3 record indicate below-average form
• • Recent matches include losses on hard courts, the likely surface for Tamworth
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.275) and is shorter than our estimated probability (75%)