Highlights

• • Home odds 3.35 imply ~29.9% chance; we estimate 36%
• • Recency and more match experience favor Jack despite limited overall data

Pros

• + Positive edge vs market price (EV ~+0.206 at current odds)
• + Jack's recent competitive matches on hard courts reduce rust risk

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes for both players increase variance and model uncertainty
• - Tai is priced as a strong favorite for reasons not fully visible in the provided data; market could reflect unseen factors

Details

We estimate Jack Bruce-Smith has materially better chances than the market implies. The bookmaker price of 3.35 implies a win probability of ~29.9%, while we assign Jack a true win probability of 36% based on his more recent match activity (played in August 2025), a larger sample of matches (5 vs 1), and demonstrated wins on hard courts versus Tai Sach's single recorded loss on hard and no recent match activity since January 2025. Those factors suggest the market is over-favoring the away player due to thin sample sizes and likely recency/ranking signals. At our probability Jack offers positive expected value versus the current 3.35 price.

Key factors

• • Jack has recent match activity (August 2025) while Tai's only recorded match was January 2025
• • Small-sample records for both players increase uncertainty, but Jack's 2-3 record and recent wins on hard court are supportive
• • Market heavily favors Tai (1.29) despite lack of recent play and 0-1 hard-court record