Jack Casciato vs Faiz Nasyam
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no external data and a significant bookmaker margin, the favorite's price (1.35) does not offer positive expected value under conservative win-probability estimates; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away (Faiz Nasyam) implied 74.1% by market; we estimate 72%
- • EV at current favorite price: -0.028 (slightly negative)
Pros
- + Market reflects a clear favorite which is likely the stronger player
- + Odds are widely available and liquid at the quoted price
Cons
- - No independent data to justify deviating from market probabilities
- - Bookmaker overround (~8%) erodes potential edge
Details
We have no external form, surface, H2H or injury data and must proceed conservatively. The market strongly favors the away player Faiz Nasyam at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%) with Jack Casciato offered at 2.95 (implied ~33.9%); the book's overround is sizable (~8%), which reduces visible value. Under conservative assumptions we estimate Faiz's true win probability at 72% (slightly lower than the market-implied 74.1% to account for vig and uncertainty). Using that estimate the expected return on a bet at 1.35 is slightly negative (EV = -0.028). The underdog would need a true win probability above ~33.9% to be profitable at 2.95; given the lack of positive evidence to support an underdog uplift, we do not see edge on either side. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current prices.
Key factors
- • No external form/injury/H2H data available — must be conservative
- • Market strongly favors away at 1.35 while implied probabilities include ~8% bookmaker margin
- • Our conservative estimate (72% for away) yields a slightly negative EV at current prices