Jack Casciato vs Peter Hatton
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value found: our conservative estimate (36% for Casciato) produces a slightly negative EV at 2.65; we'd need ≥2.778 to consider a play.
Highlights
- • Current home price (2.65) implies ~37.7% chance; we estimate 36%
- • Required price for positive EV on home is ~2.778 (> current 2.65)
Pros
- + If additional information later suggests Casciato is undervalued, a modest price improvement would create value
- + Underdog payout is reasonably large if new info emerges in our favor
Cons
- - Our best conservative estimate shows a small negative EV at current odds
- - No available research on form, surface, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty and risk
Details
With no external research available we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices Peter Hatton as a clear favorite (away 1.43 -> implied ~69.9%) while Jack Casciato is priced at 2.65 (implied ~37.7%). After accounting for the large market lean toward Hatton but also the uncertainty from lack of form/surface/H2H data, we estimate Jack Casciato's true win probability at 36.0%. At the current home price (2.65) that yields a slightly negative expected value (EV = 0.36 * 2.65 - 1 = -0.046). To be profitable long-term on Casciato we would need at least decimal 2.778. Given the small edge required and the high uncertainty from missing information, we decline to recommend a bet — there is no clear positive-value opportunity at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • No external form/injury/H2H/surface data available — high informational uncertainty
- • Market strongly favors Hatton at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%), while home is 2.65 (implied ~37.7%)
- • Our conservative true probability for Casciato (36%) is below the implied market probability for the same (37.7%), producing negative EV