Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Jack = 49.3%; our estimate = 52.0%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds for Jack = 1.923; current price 2.03 > required

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available prices
• + Jack's larger sample and higher career win rate support a small edge

Cons

• - Both players lack grass data — surface unknown increases variance
• - Small sample sizes and limited cross-surface evidence make the edge modest

Details

We find value on Jack Loge at the current home price. The market implies Jack's chance at 49.3% (2.03 -> 1/2.03 = 0.4926), while our assessment puts Jack slightly ahead at 52.0%. Our view is driven by Jack's larger sample size and higher overall win rate across 2024-2025 (37-23 across 60 matches) versus Imanol's 20-15 in 35 matches, and similar recent form with no clear injury or drop-off indicated. Neither player shows noted grass experience in the provided profiles, which reduces the surface edge for the market favorite and compresses true probabilities closer together — we give the marginal edge to the more experienced, higher-volume player. At our estimated probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.923, and the current 2.03 offers a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Jack Loge has a better overall win rate and larger match sample (37-23, 60 matches) than Imanol (20-15, 35 matches)
• • Both players lack documented grass experience in the provided research, reducing surface-based favoritism
• • Market prices favor Imanol (1.758) but we assess the fair probability closer to an even split with a slight edge to Jack