Highlights

• • Home implied probability (94.7%) is slightly below our estimated 97%
• • Value is small but positive given the profiles and form disparity

Pros

• + Large experience and better recent record for Loge
• + Market price (1.056) exceeds min required odds (1.031) for our probability estimate

Cons

• - No explicit grass-court history for either player increases outcome variance
• - Edge is small — upset risk remains (short-price volatility)

Details

We view Jack Loge as a clear favorite based on the provided profiles: Loge has a substantially larger match sample (60 matches, 37-23) and steady recent wins, while Isaac Nortey has a very limited, poor record (13 matches, 2-11). Neither profile shows grass experience, which raises uncertainty, but the form and match-volume advantage strongly favor Loge. The market odds (home 1.056 -> implied ~94.7%) are slightly shorter than our estimated true probability for Loge (~97%), creating a small positive edge. Key risks are the lack of explicit grass history and small-sample noise on Nortey, but given the huge disparity in career results and recent form, we believe the current moneyline offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Loge much larger match sample and clearly better win-loss record
• • Nortey has very limited matches and poor results (2-11)
• • No player shows grass experience (uncertainty), but form gap still large