Highlights

• • Implied market probability: 95.24% (odds 1.05)
• • Our estimated true probability: 88% → min fair odds 1.136

Pros

• + Home player has solid recent form and overall winning record
• + Surface experience noted in recent matches

Cons

• - Market price requires near-certainty that the available data do not justify
• - No Research data on the opponent or additional context to reduce uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Jack Loge 1.05 -> implied 95.24%) to our assessment. Jack Loge has a solid but not dominant profile (career 37-23, ~62% win rate) with recent wins into August 2025 on clay/hard, but the available research contains no meaningful information on Isaac Nortie Nortey or a convincing reason to assign a >95% chance to Loge. We estimate Loge's true win probability at 88%; at the quoted home price (decimal 1.05) the expected return is negative (EV = 0.88 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.076). The market price requires Loge to be virtually unbeatable to be profitable, which the data do not support. Given this negative EV we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (95.24%) is materially higher than our estimated probability (88%)
• • Jack Loge record is good (37-23) but not at the level to justify a >95% win chance
• • No available information on the opponent or match-specific context increases uncertainty