Highlights

• • Market implies Huang ~75% favorite despite limited recent success on hard
• • If Mcgary's true win chance is ~42%, the 2.98 price yields significant positive EV

Pros

• + At 2.98 the home side offers a strong ROI if our probability estimate holds
• + Huang's 2-6 record on hard supports a downgrade of his market-implied probability

Cons

• - Dataset is very limited (only 8 matches for Huang) and noisy, raising estimation risk
• - No information provided on Jack Mcgary (opponent quality, injuries, form), which increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We see the market strongly favors Haoyuan Huang at decimal 1.333 (implied ~75%), but the provided player data for Huang shows a 2-6 record on hard across 8 matches (career span in the dataset) and recent mixed results, which argues against such a high true win probability. Converting the books: the implied probabilities are ~33.6% for Jack Mcgary (home, 2.98) and ~75.0% for Huang (away, 1.333) before removing vig. Given Huang's poor recent win rate on hard courts and the very small sample size (only 8 matches listed), we estimate Huang's true chance is substantially lower than the market implies and assign Jack Mcgary a true win probability of 42%. At that probability the fair odds for Mcgary are 1/0.42 = 2.381; the offered 2.98 therefore represents positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.42 * 2.98 - 1 = +0.252 (25.2% ROI per unit stake). We acknowledge high uncertainty due to limited data and no profile provided for Mcgary, but at the quoted prices the home side shows value.

Key factors

• • Haoyuan Huang's recorded 2-6 match record on hard in the provided data signals weak recent form
• • Bookmakers price Huang very strongly at 1.333, implying a >75% win chance which appears overstated vs. available form data
• • Very small sample size and lack of information on Jack Mcgary increase uncertainty but also create pricing inefficiencies