Highlights

• • Bouzige's hard-court experience and win record justify a >19% upset probability
• • Current away price (5.2) offers ~30% ROI per our model probability

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the quoted away price
• + Bouzige's larger hard-court sample reduces uncertainty on surface performance

Cons

• - Limited direct matchup or detailed form data available in the research
• - Heavy public market lean to the favorite increases variance and upset risk

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate of true win likelihood. The market prices Jack Pinnington Jones at 1.15 (implied win ~87.0%), which leaves Moerani Bouzige as a heavy underdog at 5.2 (implied win ~19.2%). From the provided profiles Bouzige has substantially more match experience on hard courts (84 matches, 47-36 record, surfaces played: Hard) while Jack has a smaller sample (41 matches, 24-16) with mixed surface experience. Given Bouzige's larger hard-court sample, similar recent results in the same event, and the fact that a realistic underdog upset probability on hard court is likely higher than 19.2% in this matchup, we estimate Bouzige's true win probability at 25%. At that probability the current price of 5.2 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.25*5.2 - 1 = +0.30). Betting the away player therefore represents value versus the market-implied price; the home price implies dominance (≈87%) that is not convincingly supported by the provided records and recent form.

Key factors

• • Bouzige has larger hard-court sample and a positive overall record on hard
• • Market heavily favors Jack (1.15) implying ≈87% win which seems overstated given similar recent form
• • Underdog price (5.2) requires only ~19.2% chance to break even; our estimate of 25% yields clear value