Jack Loutit vs Zura Tkemaladze
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value backing the home player Jack Loutit at 1.74 — estimated true win probability ~58% yields a tiny positive EV (~0.9%).
Highlights
- • Loutit shows a better career win ratio on hard courts than Zura
- • Current price 1.74 is marginally above our fair-price threshold (1.724)
Pros
- + Small positive expected value at available odds
- + Both players are accustomed to hard courts, reducing matchup unknowns
Cons
- - Edge is very small and sensitive to estimate error
- - Limited direct H2H data and some mixed recent form make the projection uncertain
Details
We estimate Jack Loutit has a modest edge here based on his superior recent win rate on hard courts (12-10 career vs 12-22 for Zura) and both players' activity on the same surface. Market prices place Loutit at 1.74 (implied 57.5%). We conservatively estimate Loutit's true win probability at 58% given similar surface exposure, slightly better recent results, and Zura's larger sample of losses. That probability implies a min fair price of 1.724 decimal; the offered 1.74 therefore contains a small positive expected value. The advantage is small and sensitive to uncertainty in recent form and limited head-to-head information, so this is a small-value, medium-risk play.
Key factors
- • Career win rates on hard courts favor Loutit (higher win percentage)
- • Both players primarily compete on hard courts, reducing surface uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability (57.5%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (58%) giving a small edge