Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aidan Kim

Highlights

• • Market implies ~29% chance for Aidan; our model gives ~34%
• • Positive EV at the available away price (EV ≈ +0.163 per unit)

Pros

• + Aidan's higher career win-rate provides an underlying performance edge
• + Current price (3.42) offers a clear edge once surface-adjusted probability is applied

Cons

• - Aidan's lack of grass experience is a meaningful uncertainty and reduces confidence
• - Small-sample career data and limited direct matchup info increase variance

Details

We compare bookmaker-implied probabilities to a surface-adjusted estimate. Current odds imply Jack (home) 74.9% and Aidan (away) 29.2%. Raw career win rates favor Aidan (18-9 = 66.7% vs Jack 24-16 = 60.0%), which gives a baseline expectation near 52.6% for Aidan in a neutral-surface comparison. However, the match is on grass and Aidan's history shows almost exclusively hard-court experience while Jack has played grass; we therefore apply a surface penalty that reduces Aidan's baseline by ~18.5 percentage points to a conservative estimated true probability of 34.0% that Aidan wins. At the current away price of 3.42 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.34 * 3.42 - 1 = +0.1628), meaning the market underprices Aidan relative to our model. We choose Aidan only because the EV at the available price is positive; backing Jack at 1.336 offers no value (would require win probability ≥ 74.9% whereas our model places Jack at ~66%).

Key factors

• • Aidan's superior raw career win rate (18-9, ~66.7%) versus Jack's (24-16, ~60.0%)
• • Surface differential: match on grass where Jack has recorded grass matches and Aidan has almost exclusively hard-court history
• • Market-implied price (3.42 for Aidan) implies ~29.2% — below our surface-adjusted estimate of 34.0%