Jack Pinnington Jones vs Quinn Vandecasteele

Highlights

• • Book implied prob for Quinn = 20%; our estimate = 33%
• • Underdog price (5.00) offers substantial positive EV

Pros

• + Large margin between our probability and market (20% vs 33%)
• + Both play frequently on hard courts so surface mismatch risk is limited

Cons

• - Quinn's overall career win rate is lower than Jack's, so upset risk is real
• - Small-sample and limited head-to-head data increases variance

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market and our estimated chances. The book implies Quinn Vandecasteele has ~20% chance at 5.00, but based on career win rates (Jack ~60% vs Quinn ~41%), both players' experience on hard courts, and Quinn's recent Challenger-level wins, we estimate Quinn's true win probability around 33%. At 5.00 that produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.33*5.00 - 1 = +0.65, a +65% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The heavy favourite price for Jack (1.16, implied ~86%) looks overstated given Jack's record and recent mixed results, so the underdog line offers value.

Key factors

• • Market implies Quinn win probability of 20% (5.00) which is well below our 33% estimate
• • Career records and surface experience suggest Quinn is notably worse than Jack but not a 1-in-5 shot
• • Recent form: Jack has shown mixed results at Challenger/US Open level while Quinn has Challenger wins — supports a closer match-up than the market implies