Jack Pinnington Jones vs Trevor Svajda

Highlights

• • Away price 2.28 implies 43.9% — we estimate ~47.0%, producing ~7.2% ROI on a 1-unit stake
• • Home favorite at 1.61 implies 62.1% but Jack's supplied win-rate and recent results do not clearly justify that level

Pros

• + Value exists at the current away price by our conservative probability estimate
• + Trevor's record and hard-court focus support an above-market probability

Cons

• - Edge is modest; small sample sizes and limited recent-match detail increase variance
• - No head-to-head or full injury/fitness detail provided in the supplied data

Details

We compare bookmaker-implied probabilities to our modelled win chances using the provided career records, surface history and recent form. Jack Pinnington Jones is the favorite at 1.61 (implied 62.1%) but his recorded win-rate (24-16 => 60.0%) and recent noted losses (including a US Open loss and a recent Winston-Salem result that looks negative) reduce confidence in a true 62% chance. Trevor Svajda has a superior recorded win-rate on the provided data (24-11 => 68.6% overall on a smaller sample) and is described as a hard-court player, which is directly relevant for Winston-Salem (hard). The market price for Trevor (2.28, implied 43.9%) appears to understate his chance when we weight hard-court specialization and recent qualifying/main-draw wins. We conservatively estimate Trevor's true probability at 47.0%; at decimal 2.28 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.047*2.28 - 1 = +0.0716). Given the modest edge versus the market and thin sample/no direct H2H in the provided data, we consider this a value bet on the away player at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Surface alignment: Trevor's profile lists hard-court specialization while Winston-Salem is hard
• • Recent form and win-rate: Trevor's provided win-rate (24-11 ~68.6%) exceeds Jack's (24-16 ~60.0%) in the supplied data
• • Bookmaker margin: market implies 43.9% for Trevor vs our 47.0% estimate, creating a small value edge