Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.503) ≈ 66.5%; our estimate ~60%
• • We therefore decline to recommend a bet — no positive EV at current lines

Pros

• + Bradshaw has the better recent record and is the logical favorite
• + Both players have recent hard-court matches in Monastir, reducing surface surprise

Cons

• - Bradshaw's season record is not dominant (13-15), so the market may be overpricing him
• - Reguig's higher match count but poor win rate creates unpredictability; data sample remains small

Details

We estimate Jacob Bradshaw is the match favorite but not by as large a margin as the market implies. The current moneyline (home 1.503) implies ~66.5% win probability; based on the players' season records (Bradshaw 13-15, Samir 12-26), both having played Monastir on hard courts recently, and no clear H2H or injury information, we assess Bradshaw's true win probability at about 60%. That is materially below the implied 66.5%, so the home price at 1.503 does not offer positive expected value. Conversely, Reguig's decimal 2.45 implies ~40.8% — our estimate for him is lower (roughly 40% or less), so that side also lacks value. Given limited, mixed-form data and small-sample career records, the market price appears tight but not exploitable for value on either side.

Key factors

• • Bradshaw slightly better win-rate this season (13-15) versus Reguig (12-26)
• • Both players have recent matches at Monastir on hard courts — surface familiarity is similar
• • Small-sample career records and lack of head-to-head or injury info increases uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability for Bradshaw (≈66.5%) exceeds our estimate (60%) so no edge