Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Bradshaw (1.152) but implied probability exceeds our estimate
• • Insufficient opponent data increases uncertainty and argues for caution

Pros

• + Bradshaw has recent match experience at Monastir on hard courts
• + Career-level experience suggests he is the stronger player on paper

Cons

• - Market price is too short to offer positive EV given our probability view
• - Lack of any provided data on the opponent prevents identifying exploitable mismatches

Details

We estimate Jacob Bradshaw's true win probability around 78% based on his tour experience, recent matches at Monastir (hard) and general form shown in the provided profile. The market prices Bradshaw at decimal 1.152 (implied probability ≈86.8%). That implied probability is materially higher than our assessed 78%, so the market offers no value on the heavy favorite. There is also important uncertainty because we have no data on Tomas Jordi Leston in the provided research, which prevents confidently upgrading our probability estimate. Given the gap between our probability (78%) and the market implied (≈86.8%), expected value at the current price is negative and we therefore do not recommend taking the favorite at 1.152.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~86.8% chance for Bradshaw (1.152) which is higher than our estimate
• • Bradshaw has relevant recent play at Monastir on hard courts but recent results are mixed
• • No provided information on Tomas Jordi Leston increases model uncertainty