Highlights

• • Home (Bradshaw) likely undervalued for Monastir hard conditions
• • Nagel favored by market but recent evidence suggests his edge on hard may be limited

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (~+0.049 EV per unit)
• + Bradshaw has direct recent experience at the Monastir hard events

Cons

• - Small edge — outcome variance is high in single-match tennis
• - Limited and noisy recent-performance data; uncertainty in probability estimate

Details

We compare the bookmakers' pricing to our assessment of each player's win probability. The market prices Arthur Nagel at 1.568 (implied ~63.8%) and Jacob Bradshaw at 2.28 (implied ~43.9%). Given the research: both players have similar overall records, but Bradshaw has recent match experience in Monastir on hard courts while Nagel's recent noted matches were on clay and show weaker 1st-serve numbers. Considering surface familiarity, comparable career records, and Nagel's recent clay form not transferring as strongly to hard, we estimate Bradshaw's true win probability is higher than the market-implied 43.9%. Using our estimate (46.0%), Bradshaw at 2.28 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.046 * 2.28 - 1 = 0.0488). That produces a small but real edge against the market price. We therefore recommend backing the home player (Bradshaw) because the price offers value versus our probability estimate, while acknowledging limited sample sizes and uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Bradshaw has recent match experience in Monastir on hard courts
• • Nagel's recent highlighted form is on clay with subpar 1st-serve metrics
• • Market strongly favors Nagel; we view that margin as overstated given similar career records