Jacob Bradshaw vs Oskar Brostrom Poulsen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Jacob Bradshaw at 1.226 because his experience and hard-court familiarity justify a ~86% win probability, producing a positive EV (~5.4%).
Highlights
- • Market-implied win prob ~81.6% vs our estimate 86%
- • Edge driven by experience and surface fit; opponent has minimal pro history
Pros
- + Clear experience and surface advantage for Bradshaw
- + Price still offers a measurable positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is modest (low-single-digit ROI) and could be eroded by variance
- - Away player's data set is tiny, introducing uncertainty in true ability
Details
We estimate value on Jacob Bradshaw (home). The market implies a win probability of 81.6% at 1.226 decimal odds (1/1.226 = 0.816). Based on the research, Bradshaw has substantially more match experience on hard courts in this event and a larger sample of recent matches, while Oskar Brostrom Poulsen has only two recorded professional matches (0-2) and limited form signs. The surface (hard, Monastir) and Bradshaw's recent play in this location favor him. We conservatively estimate Bradshaw's true win probability at 86.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 81.6% and produces a positive expected value. Using the available price (1.226) yields an EV of ~+5.4% (EV = 0.86 * 1.226 - 1 = 0.054). The edge is not huge, but it is a measurable value gap driven by experience, surface fit, and opponent inexperience. We note uncertainty due to small-sample noise and the limited depth of opponent data, so the recommendation is value-based rather than a certainty.
Key factors
- • Home player has more match experience and recent hard-court play
- • Away player has extremely limited pro sample (0-2) and poor recent results
- • Current market price implies a lower win probability than our conservative estimate