Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home = 88.5%; our estimate = 86%
• • Required minimum decimal odds to be profitable = 1.163

Pros

• + Clear market consensus that the home player is heavily favored
• + Short price reduces variance on a correct selection if true probability is high

Cons

• - Offered price (1.13) is below our break-even threshold (1.163)
• - No independent data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) to justify moving our probability higher

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.13 => implied 88.5%) to a conservative estimated true win probability of 86% for Jacopo Borsoi. At our estimate the fair decimal price is 1.163 (1 / 0.86). The offered home price of 1.13 is below that fair threshold, producing a small negative expected value (EV = 0.86 * 1.13 - 1 = -0.028). Given the lack of external information on surface, form, injuries or head-to-head and the very short favorite price, there is insufficient value to recommend backing the favorite. We therefore advise no bet at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies a very strong favorite (home 1.13) leaving little margin
• • No external match-specific info (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — we use conservative assumptions
• • Break-even price for our estimate is ~1.163, above the available 1.13