Highlights

• • Andrea's 1-11 record indicates a very low baseline win expectation
• • Book price for Jacopo (2.59) implies only ~38.6% but our conservative view is ~65%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market pricing and documented player form
• + Positive expected value at widely-available current odds

Cons

• - Small sample of matches for Andrea increases uncertainty in true skill estimate
• - We lack direct data on Jacopo Borsoi's recent form/H2H, so our estimate must be conservative

Details

We compared the market pricing to the available player data. The book market prices Andrea Bacaloni as the clear favourite (1.433 -> implied ~69.8%) despite his documented 1-11 career record (12 matches) and very poor recent form. That record implies a much lower win expectation for Andrea; even conservatively adjusting for small-sample noise, we estimate Jacopo Borsoi is substantially more likely to win than the market-implied ~38.6% (decimal 2.59). Using a conservative true probability for the home player of 65% (reflecting Andrea's low historical win rate but allowing for uncertainty), the current price 2.59 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.65 * 2.59 - 1 = 0.684). Therefore the home side offers clear value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Andrea Bacaloni's documented 1-11 career record (very low win rate)
• • Market-implied probabilities heavily favor Andrea (1.433 -> ~69.8%) despite his poor form
• • Conservative true probability estimate for the home player (65%) yields a large positive EV at 2.59