Jaeda Daniel vs Katarina Jokic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Jaeda Daniel at 2.84 because our conservative 38% win estimate exceeds the market-implied ~35.2%, producing ~7.9% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Jaeda: ~35.2% (2.84)
- • Our conservative estimated probability: 38%, yielding positive EV
Pros
- + Current price (2.84) offers value relative to our probability estimate
- + No injury or surface disadvantage reported in the supplied data to counter the pick
Cons
- - Both players have limited and similar records — high uncertainty in true edge
- - Small margin between our estimate and market implied probability; sensitive to estimation error
Details
We estimate value on the home pick (Jaeda Daniel). Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data, so a neutral prior would be close to 50/50. Given identical sample-based profiles and lack of injury or surface disadvantage information, we conservatively adjust that prior to a 38% true-win probability for Jaeda to reflect small model uncertainty while still recognizing parity. The market-implied probability for Jaeda at 2.84 is ~35.2%; our 38% estimate is meaningfully higher than the implied probability, producing positive expected value. At current decimal odds (2.84) EV = 0.38*2.84 - 1 = +0.079 (≈7.9% ROI). We prefer a conservative probability due to very limited differentiating information and identical-looking records, but the market price offers value versus our estimate.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
- • Market strongly favors the away player; implied probability for home (35.2%) is slightly below our estimate
- • No injury, surface or H2H differentiator provided — increases uncertainty but supports a conservative edge estimate