Highlights

• • Small positive EV: ~+5.1% on a 1-unit stake
• • Market odds appear slightly short of our estimated probability for the favorite

Pros

• + Clear edge between our probability estimate and market-implied price
• + Opponent shows weak recent form in the provided research

Cons

• - Edge is small — value margin is modest and sensitive to estimation error
• - Research set is limited (only Daniel's profile provided); less confidence than with fuller data

Details

We believe Katharina Hobgarski is slightly undervalued by the market. The moneyline of 1.282 implies an implied win probability of ~78.1%, while our assessment (based on Jaeda Daniel's weak recent form and overall 10-21 career record in the provided data) places Hobgarski's true win probability at ~82%. That gap (82% vs market 78.1%) produces a small positive expected value on the away moneyline at the quoted price. There are no injury or suspension notes in the provided research to materially reduce Hobgarski's chances, and Daniel's recent results suggest she is unlikely to be a live underdog threat here. Given the current decimal odds we used for the calculation, the bet returns a modest positive ROI.

Key factors

• • Jaeda Daniel's poor recent form and overall 10-21 career record in provided data
• • Market-implied probability (1.282 -> ~78.1%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (82%)
• • No conflicting injury or suspension information provided to materially alter probabilities