Jaesung Choe vs Duckhee Lee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given Choe's 0-3 record and recent hard-court losses, we assign Duckhee a ~70% win probability; at 1.565 this represents positive EV and merits a back of the away player.
Highlights
- • Choe's professional record shows no wins and recent losses on hard in Maanshan
- • Current away price (1.565) implies ~63.9% — we estimate true probability ~70%
Pros
- + Current odds are higher than our conservative true-probability threshold (min required 1.429)
- + Surface and recent form data for Choe point toward a strong favorite advantage
Cons
- - Research contains limited direct information about Duckhee Lee's current form or injuries
- - Very small sample size for Choe increases variance — upset risk remains
Details
We compare the market price (Away 1.565, implied win probability ~63.9%) to our assessment based on the provided player data. Jaesung Choe is 0-3 with recent losses on hard courts in Maanshan, indicating very limited positive form or match wins to date. The market makes Duckhee Lee the clear favorite; given Choe's winless professional record and the match being on hard, we assess Duckhee's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 63.9%. Conservatively estimating Duckhee's true win probability at 70%, the current decimal price 1.565 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.565 - 1 = +0.0955). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the available price. Key uncertainties include the very small sample size for Choe and missing direct information on Duckhee's current form or injuries, which we factor into a medium risk classification.
Key factors
- • Jaesung Choe is 0-3 with recent losses and limited wins on hard court
- • Market price places Duckhee Lee as a clear favorite (1.565 implies ~63.9%)
- • Small sample size for Choe increases uncertainty but skews probability toward the favorite