Jaesung Choe vs Egor Agafonov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find slight positive value on Egor Agafonov at 1.186 because the market underestimates his probability relative to the clear experience and recent-form advantage.
Highlights
- • Market implies 84.3% for Agafonov; we estimate 88%
- • Estimated ROI ~ +4.4% at current price
Pros
- + Agafonov has a significantly stronger match record and experience advantage
- + Recent results at the same Maanshan hard event favor Agafonov
Cons
- - Edge is modest — outcome still subject to normal tennis variance
- - Choe's small sample size could hide unrecorded improvement or matchup quirks
Details
We see a clear quality gap in the provided profiles: Egor Agafonov has a substantial match history (60 matches, 38-22) and recent wins at the Maanshan hard event, while Jaesung Choe's recorded sample is extremely limited and winless (0-3). The market moneyline of 1.186 implies an 84.3% win probability for Agafonov. Given Agafonov's much larger sample size, superior record, and at least one recent win at this hard-court Maanshan event versus Choe's recent losses there, we estimate Agafonov's true win probability at 88.0%. That gives positive value: EV = 0.88 * 1.186 - 1 = +0.0437 (≈4.37% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The edge is not huge but present; main risk stems from variance in lower-level events and Choe's small sample size which could conceal improvement or matchup-specific factors.
Key factors
- • Agafonov much larger professional sample (60 matches) and winning record (38-22)
- • Choe's documented record is 0-3, indicating weak recent results on hard court
- • Market-implied probability (84.3%) is below our estimated true probability (88%), producing value