Highlights

• • Market implies ~74% for Orlov; our estimate is ~70%
• • Required odds for a value bet on Orlov are ~1.429; current is 1.346

Pros

• + Orlov's larger match count and better record justify market favoritism
• + Both players have similar surface profiles, reducing upset likelihood

Cons

• - Recent results for both are inconsistent at this level, introducing variance
• - Filip's underdog price is close to value but slightly short of our threshold

Details

We compare the market prices (Orlov 1.346, Filip 3.01) to our read of the players. Orlov has a substantially larger match sample (69 matches, 37-32) and a stronger overall record than Filip (38 matches, 18-20), both have recent mixed results at the same M15-level events and have played on clay/hard regularly, so surface does not materially favor the underdog. The market implies ~74% for Orlov; after accounting for Orlov's superior experience but acknowledging both players' mixed recent form and lack of injury information, we estimate Orlov's true win probability at ~70%. At the quoted 1.346 this produces a negative EV (~-0.058 per unit). To warrant a bet on Orlov we'd need odds ≥1.429; to back Filip as a value we'd need odds ≥3.125 (we estimate Filip's true chance ≈32%), but the listed 3.01 is slightly short of that threshold. Therefore no value exists at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Orlov has a larger sample and better overall win-loss record (37-32 vs 18-20)
• • Recent form is mixed for both at the same M15 events — no clear momentum edge
• • Surface experience is comparable (clay and hard) and no injury flags are reported