Highlights

• • Implied home probability (30.9%) is below our estimate (33.5%)
• • Minimum fair price for Filip is ~2.985; current 3.24 offers positive EV

Pros

• + Line reflects an inflated favorite; underdog price offers measurable edge
• + Both players have relevant surface experience; outcome is not one-sided

Cons

• - Orlov's better overall record and larger match sample limit how high we can push Filip's true probability
• - Small-sample and event variance at ITF level increase uncertainty around the estimate

Details

The market makes Orlov a strong favorite at 1.328 (implied ~75.2%) while Filip is priced at 3.24 (implied ~30.9%). Reviewing the provided profiles, Orlov has a better overall record and more matches (37-32 vs 18-20), but the gap is not so large that Filip should be treated as <31% likely to win in an ITF semi on familiar surfaces. Allowing for market margin (~6% overround) and the limited-match samples, we estimate Filip's true win probability at 33.5%, which exceeds the market-implied 30.9% and produces positive expected value on the 3.24 line. At our estimate, the minimum fair decimal price for Filip is ~2.985; the current 3.24 therefore offers ~8.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake. We prefer the home underdog here because the favorite price (Orlov) would need ~75.2% true probability to be fair, which is higher than the evidence supports given both players' recent records and surfaces.

Key factors

• • Orlov has a stronger career record and more match experience (37-32 vs 18-20), making him the natural favorite
• • Filip has shown competitive results on the same tournament surface and is not a heavy longshot — a true win chance we estimate ~33.5%
• • Market overround inflates favorite pricing (implied probabilities sum >100%), leaving potential value on the underdog at 3.24