Highlights

• • Book implied probability: ~88.9% (Home 1.125)
• • Our estimated true probability for Nicod: 75% → requires ≥1.333 decimal to be +EV

Pros

• + Nicod has the superior overall record (28-19 vs 19-20)
• + Home/player listed first may indicate slight seeding/favor in qualifier draw

Cons

• - No grass-court history for either player in the provided data — unknown surface adaptability
• - Market price compresses value heavily; current odds produce negative ROI vs our estimate

Details

The market price (Home 1.125 -> implied 88.9%) overstates Jakub Nicod's probability of winning. Nicod has a modestly better overall record (28-19) than Gregor Ramskogler (19-20), but both players' recent match lists are on clay/hard with no grass form provided, reducing confidence that Nicod is a near-lock on grass. Given similar Challenger/ITF-level profiles, lack of head-to-head data, and limited grass exposure, a realistic true probability for Nicod is ~75%, well below the market-implied ~88.9%, so there is no positive EV at the current price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (88.9%) far exceeds our estimated win probability (75%)
• • Both players' documented recent matches are on clay/hard; no recorded grass performance for either
• • Nicod has a better overall win-loss record, but margin is small and not enough to justify 1.125 price