Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Nicod: 57.5%
• • Current odds give a small positive EV (~1.7% ROI)

Pros

• + Clearer historical winning record in favor of Nicod
• + Market price slightly above our min-required odds for value

Cons

• - Both players have no clear grass track record, increasing variance
• - Edge is small and sensitive to modest estimation changes

Details

We judge Jakub Nicod as the marginal favorite based on a stronger overall win-loss record (28-19 vs 19-28) and recent comparable form; neither player has notable grass credentials so surface impact is uncertain and reduces confidence. The market price (Nicod 1.769) implies a win probability of ~56.55%; our estimated true probability for Nicod is 57.5%, which yields positive expected value. Calculation: estimated p = 0.575 -> min required odds = 1 / 0.575 = 1.739. Current odds 1.769 > 1.739, giving EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.575 * 1.769 - 1 = 0.017175 (≈1.7% ROI). The edge is small and driven primarily by Nicod's superior career win rate; uncertainty around grass form and lack of H2H history keeps this a low-margin value play.

Key factors

• • Nicod's stronger overall win-loss record (28-19) vs Vrbensky (19-28)
• • Both players lack documented grass experience, increasing outcome uncertainty
• • Current market odds (1.769) slightly undervalue Nicod vs our probability estimate