Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~87% vs our estimate 80%
• • Fair odds based on our estimate would be ~1.25, not 1.15

Pros

• + High probability outcome if staking on favorite
• + Low variance result expected in match outcome

Cons

• - Favorite price (1.15) offers negative expected value versus our estimate
• - Lack of match-specific data increases estimation uncertainty

Details

We see a heavy market lean toward the home player (Jakub Prachar) with decimal odds 1.15 (implied ~87.0%). With no external data on surface, form, injuries or head-to-head, we apply conservative assumptions and discount the market margin. We estimate the true probability of the home win at 0.80 (80%) — lower than the market-implied ~87% to allow for uncertainty and the bookmaker margin. At that probability the fair odds would be 1.25; the offered 1.15 produces a negative expected value (-0.08 per 1 unit staked). The away price of 5.0 (implied 20%) would require a true win probability above 20% to show value; under our conservative view the away probability is roughly 20% so it does not offer positive expected value either. Given negative EV on the favorite and no positive EV on the underdog, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~87% (odds 1.15) while we conservatively estimate 80%
• • No external info on surface, injuries, form or H2H — we apply a conservative discount to the market
• • Bookmaker margin (~7%) and extremely short favorite price compresses any value