Highlights

• • Normalized market fair probs ~52.0% home / 48.0% away after removing vig
• • Current home odds (1.79) imply a negative EV versus our conservative 52% estimate

Pros

• + Market is competitive and close, suggesting a true coinflip-ish match where small edges matter
• + If additional intel (injury, surface advantage, recent form) emerges, edges could appear quickly

Cons

• - No available data on surface, injuries, form or H2H increases model uncertainty
• - Both listed prices are shorter than our conservative fair odds, so immediate value is absent

Details

We normalize the provided moneyline market and apply a conservative, information-sparse estimate. The market-implied probabilities (home 1/1.79 = 55.86%, away 1/1.93 = 51.81%) sum to an overround (~7.7%); normalizing gives roughly 51.9% home / 48.1% away. With no surface, form, injury or H2H data returned, we remain conservative and estimate the true home win probability at 52.0% (implying away ~48.0%). At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price for the home is 1.923. The current home price of 1.79 produces EV = 0.52*1.79 - 1 = -0.069 (negative). The away side similarly shows no value (estimated p~0.48 -> min fair odds ~2.083 vs market 1.93 -> negative EV ≈ -0.074). Given both sides yield negative expected value, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Market shows modest favorite for home but with bookmaker overround (~7.7%)
• • No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative estimates
• • Both sides' implied prices are shorter than our conservative fair probabilities, producing negative EV