Highlights

• • Market prices Matthew as a clear favorite (1.429) despite lower career win rate
• • Home price 2.67 exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.273) for Filip

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Filip's career win rate and recent clay-level wins support a higher true probability

Cons

• - Limited surface-specific and head-to-head data increases uncertainty
• - Both players show recent losses on clay; form swing risk is present

Details

We estimate Jakub Filip is undervalued by the market. The current decimal price of 2.67 implies a win probability of ~37.5%, while our modelled estimate for Filip is 44%. Our view is driven by Filip's higher career win rate (35-39, ~47%) versus Matthew Donald's lower career win rate (59-91, ~39%), both players showing recent losses on clay but with Filip demonstrating slightly stronger recent clay results at lower-level events. Matthew's larger match sample does not overcome his lower overall win percentage and recent clay defeats. The market is pricing Donald as a clear favorite (1.429) which we view as too generous given available form and career metrics. Given these inputs, the home price at 2.67 offers positive expected value, though uncertainty is material due to limited head-to-head/surface-specific detail.

Key factors

• • Jakub Filip higher career win percentage (35-39 ~47%) than Matthew Donald (59-91 ~39%)
• • Both players recent results show clay losses, but Filip has recent clay wins at lower-level events
• • Market-implied probability for Filip (≈37.5%) is below our estimated true probability (44%), creating value