Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability: 56%
• • Positive but very small EV at current price (+0.46% ROI)

Pros

• + Paul’s larger sample size and better career win rate support a slight edge
• + Current odds (1.794) are marginally favorable versus our probability model

Cons

• - Edge is very small — outcome variance in a single match can easily erase the advantage
• - Limited recent-match detail and no head-to-head data increase uncertainty

Details

We favor Jakub Paul at the current price because his longer career sample and higher overall win rate give him a small edge on hard courts versus Justin Engel. The market-implied probability at the home price 1.794 is 1/1.794 = 0.558; our estimated true win probability for Paul is 0.56, producing a small positive edge. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.56 * 1.794 - 1 = 0.00464 (≈ +0.46% ROI). Key drivers are Paul’s larger historical sample (217-166 vs Engel’s 56-55), comparable hard-court experience, and no reported injuries in the research. Because the edge is very small, this is a narrow value opportunity that depends on accepting our probability model (0.56) over the market-implied 0.558.

Key factors

• • Jakub Paul has a larger career sample and higher overall win rate (217-166) than Justin Engel (56-55)
• • Both players have recent wins on hard at this Cassis event; no injury flags reported
• • Market-implied probability (0.558) is marginally below our estimated true probability (0.56), creating a slim edge