Highlights

• • Market favorite priced at 1.63 but our conservative fair price is 1.724
• • Current odds produce a negative expected return (≈ -5.5% ROI) on the favorite

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids hidden risk from unknown injuries or poor form
• + Clear quantitative threshold (min required odds 1.724) for re-evaluating if prices shift

Cons

• - If actual information (form/injury/surface edge) favors the favorite more than we assumed, we may be overly conservative
• - Opportunity cost if the market is correct and the favorite truly is >61%

Details

We take a conservative approach because no external form, surface, or injury data were available. The market prices the home (Jakub Prachar) at 1.63 (implied ~61.3%). Given the uncertainty, we discount the favorite and estimate Jakub Prachar's true win probability at 58%. That implies fair decimal odds of 1.724; the current price of 1.63 is too short, producing a negative expected value. The away price (2.16) would require an implied win probability of ~46.3%, which also does not offer value relative to our conservative estimates.

Key factors

• • No external information on recent form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we apply a conservative margin
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.63) is ~61.3%; we discount that to 58% due to information uncertainty
• • Required fair odds (1.724) exceed the available price (1.63), giving a negative EV on the favorite