Highlights

• • Home implied win% (82%) exceeds our estimate (78%), producing negative EV at 1.22.
• • William Grant's losing overall record and mixed recent form do not justify taking the 4.0 underdog price as value.

Pros

• + Favorite is priced as a strong favorite, reflecting likely true superior standing.
• + Available research shows the underdog has a losing record, supporting the market favorite status.

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.22) offers no value versus our estimated probability.
• - Insufficient detailed data on James Kent Trotter prevents identifying hidden value on either side.

Details

We view the market-implied probability for the home favorite (1.22) as about 82% but, based on the available research (William Grant's 24-29 career record, mixed recent form, and no information suggesting a significant injury to the favorite), we estimate the true win probability for the home player at ~78%. That makes the current home price slightly over-priced for the bettor (negative EV) and the away price (4.0) also fails to offer value versus our estimate for the underdog. Given the limited data on James Kent Trotter in the provided research and William Grant's losing overall record and inconsistent recent results, we prefer no side unless prices move to meet the required thresholds below.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.22) = ~82%; our estimate = 78% (slight overprice)
• • William Grant career 24-29 with mixed recent results; no clear form edge
• • No injury or favorable-surface information in the provided research to justify diverging from market