James Lorenzetti vs Maximilian Borisov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no corroborating data and a conservative 75% estimate for the favorite, the current 1.30 price lacks positive expected value; we therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability: ~76.9% (1.30)
- • Our conservative estimate: 75.0% → market price slightly overstates value
- • Need odds ≥1.333 on the away to reach break-even/value
Pros
- + Market consensus likely reflects real strength — avoiding weak-value wagers preserves bankroll
- + Conservative approach minimizes exposure when information is lacking
Cons
- - If additional information (injury, surface advantage, recent form) favors the favorite, missed small-value opportunities may occur
- - High uncertainty means our estimate could be materially off in either direction
Details
We see a strong market favoritism toward the away player (Maximilian Borisov) at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%). With no external data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) available, we adopt conservative assumptions and estimate the away player's true win probability at 75.0%. At the quoted price 1.30 this yields a slight negative edge (EV = 0.75 * 1.30 - 1 = -0.025), so the market price is slightly better than our fair price and does not offer positive expected value. The home price of 3.20 would require a much higher probability of an upset (≥31.25%) to be attractive; given the lack of supporting evidence, we do not assign that much probability to the home player. Due to high information uncertainty, we recommend no bet unless a bettor can obtain decimal odds ≥1.333 on the away player (or significantly better odds on the home player supported by new information).
Key factors
- • Market implies heavy away favorite at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%)
- • No external information on surface, form, injuries or H2H available — we apply conservative assumptions
- • Our conservative estimated true probability for the away player (75%) yields a slight negative EV at current odds