James Lorenzetti vs Rodrigo Fernandes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home underdog at 4.8 because Rodrigo's heavy favoritism appears overstated given limited and inconsistent form; estimated EV ≈ +5.6%.
Highlights
- • Current home price 4.8 vs our fair price 4.545
- • Estimated ROI per unit stake ≈ 5.6%
Pros
- + Underdog price exceeds our fair odds, giving positive expected value
- + Rodrigo's small sample and mixed recent results reduce confidence in the heavy market favorite
Cons
- - Very limited data on both players increases model uncertainty
- - Rodrigo is still the market favorite and could be the stronger player despite small samples
Details
The market makes Rodrigo a heavy favorite at decimal 1.16 (implied win probability ~86%). Rodrigo's available profile shows a very small sample (11 matches, 5-6) with mixed recent results on hard courts, which reduces confidence that his true win probability is as high as the market implies. We conservatively estimate James Lorenzetti's true chance at 22% (0.22). At that probability the fair decimal price is 4.545; the current home moneyline of 4.8 is longer than fair value, producing positive expected value. Calculation: expected_value = 0.22 * 4.8 - 1 = 0.056 (5.6% ROI per unit). Because Rodrigo's market price requires an assumed true win rate >86.2% to be a profitable lay and his historical sample and recent inconsistency don't support that certainty, the underdog price represents value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Rodrigo is ~86%, which is high given limited match history
- • Rodrigo's career sample is small (11 matches) with a 5-6 record on hard, showing inconsistency
- • Underdog price (4.8) exceeds our calculated fair odds (4.545) producing slight positive EV