Highlights

• • Market price implies ~67% chance; our model 70% → small value
• • Experience and surface fit favor Basilashvili in a Challenger draw

Pros

• + Clear experience gap likely in Basilashvili's favor
• + Current odds (1.493) exceed the minimum fair odds (1.429) implied by our probability

Cons

• - Value margin is modest (≈4.5% ROI) — susceptible to variance
• - Research lacks match-specific form/injury detail, adding uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Away/Basilashvili 1.493) to our estimated win probability. Basilashvili is the clear favorite on grass in a Challenger field given his ATP-level experience and a 43-31 record across surfaces; that experience typically converts to a material edge at Challenger events. The market implies a win probability of ~67.0% (1/1.493). We estimate his true probability at 70.0% on grass versus a lower-ranked Challenger opponent, which produces positive expected value. The edge is modest but real at the current widely-available price; upside is that the market underestimates his probability by ~3 percentage points. There are some uncertainties in recent form details and match-specific factors, so the value is not large but is positive.

Key factors

• • Basilashvili's greater ATP-level experience relative to typical Challenger opposition
• • Match surface: grass — a surface where experience and serve-focused play often yields an advantage
• • Market-implied probability (~67.0%) is below our estimated true probability (70.0%)