Highlights

• • Book heavily favors Story (1.267) despite likely clay surface disadvantaging him
• • Kouzmine's experience and clay background create a measurable edge at 3.56

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between implied and our estimated probability
• + Surface and experience factors favor the underdog

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses and form concerns
• - Limited direct H2H or event-specific data increases uncertainty

Details

We see a large market disparity: the book prices James Story as a heavy favorite (1.267, implied 78.9%) while Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine is priced at 3.56 (implied 28.1%). Reviewing the profiles, Kouzmine is the more experienced player overall and has documented clay experience, whereas Story's recorded surfaces are grass/carpet/hard with limited clay history. The event (Bagneres-De-Bigorre) is likely clay, which should materially reduce Story's edge and boost Kouzmine's chances despite recent losses for both. Balancing career win rates, surface fit, and recent form, we estimate Kouzmine's true win probability at 38%, which is well above the market-implied 28.1% and produces positive expected value at the current 3.56 price.

Key factors

• • Surface fit: Kouzmine has clay experience; Story has little recorded clay history
• • Experience gap: Kouzmine has far more professional matches (371 vs 79)
• • Price inefficiency: market implies only ~28% for Kouzmine while our model gives ~38%